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Crypto Jul 1: BTC back above $60K, MiCA fully live

Daily review of the July 1 (Wednesday) global crypto market: top 15 coins, stablecoins, NFT, ETF flows and regulation. Bitcoin reclaims the $60,000 level (+3.1%) after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down, ETH ~$1,620, Solana +6.2%. Citi cuts its BTC target to $82,000. On July 1 the MiCA transitional period ended - full enforcement across all 27 EU states.

Toms Ābeltiņš

2 July 20268 min read

On Wednesday, July 1, the crypto market caught a breather after a brutal June. Bitcoin, which started the day at a 21-month low (around $58,300), reclaimed the $60,000 level after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down, trading around $60,300 in the evening (+3.1%). Ethereum recovered to ~$1,620, Solana rose 6.2% supported by tokenized stock trading. Total market cap ~$2.17T (+2.0%), while the fear index stayed in extreme-fear territory. In the background: Citigroup cut its BTC target from $112,000 to $82,000, US Bitcoin ETFs lost a record ~$4.5B in June, and on July 1 the MiCA transitional period ended - the regulation is now fully enforced across all 27 EU member states, with USDT lacking MiCA authorization being restricted on regulated EEA exchanges.

Global crypto market on July 1: Bitcoin reclaims $60,000 after Fed comments, MiCA enters full force

On Wednesday, July 1, the cryptocurrency market finally caught a breather after a brutal June. Bitcoin, which started the day at its lowest level in more than 21 months (around $58,300), recovered through the day and broke above the $60,000 mark, closing around $60,300 (+3.1%). The turnaround was triggered by comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation risks have come down. At the same time, the day marked a historic regulatory turning point in Europe - on July 1, the MiCA transitional period ended and the regulation entered full enforcement across all 27 EU member states.

Market overview

After a June in which Bitcoin lost roughly 20% (its steepest monthly drop since 2022), the first day of July started grimly: Bitcoin traded around $58,300 in the morning - its lowest level since autumn 2024. But after Warsh's remarks, in which he pointed to reduced inflation risks and the positive effect of AI investment on the productive capacity of the US economy, risk assets recovered. Bitcoin broke above the $60,000 level in the second half of the day and traded around $60,300 in the evening, up roughly 3% on the day.

Total market capitalization recovered to around $2.17 trillion (+2.0% on the day). In the volatile stretch, roughly $359 million in positions were liquidated over 24 hours, led by ETH and BTC. The fear and greed index remained in the extreme fear zone (around 11-15 points), and analysts reminded that Bitcoin has now fallen in both the first and second quarters - only the third time in history a year has started this way (previously in 2018 and 2022).

A separate blow to sentiment came from Citigroup: the bank cut its forecasts for the second time this year, setting a 12-month Bitcoin target of $82,000 (previously $112,000) and an Ethereum target of $2,240 (previously $3,175), while cutting its expected net ETF inflows to zero.

Top 15 coins on July 1

Unlike previous days, most top coins traded in the green. Solana stood out, supported by growth in tokenized stock trading, while Hyperliquid's HYPE was among the few decliners.

1. Bitcoin (BTC) ▲ ~$60,300 (+3.1% on the day)

Bitcoin started the day at a 21-month low around $58,300 but reclaimed the $60,000 level after Warsh's comments. Analysts noted the bounce is positive, but weak institutional demand (record ETF outflows in June) still weighs on the bigger picture.

2. Ethereum (ETH) ▲ ~$1,620 (+3.5% on the day)

Ethereum recovered to around $1,620. A positive headline was the launch of Ethereum Institutional - an independent non-profit that will serve as a contact point for global financial institutions on tokenization, stablecoins and on-chain infrastructure.

3. Tether (USDT) ◆ ~$1.00 (stable)

USDT held its peg with a market cap around $188 billion. With MiCA's full enforcement, USDT, which lacks MiCA authorization, is being restricted or phased out on regulated EEA exchanges.

4. BNB ▲ ~$550 (+0.7% on the day)

BNB traded around $550, edging higher along with the broader market.

5. USDC ◆ ~$1.00 (stable)

USDC held its peg with a market cap around $74 billion. As a MiCA-compliant stablecoin, USDC's position in Europe becomes even stronger after July 1.

6. XRP ▲ ~$1.06 (+1.3% on the day)

XRP traded around $1.06. XRP funds were among June's bright spots with roughly $59.4 million in net inflows, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suffered outflows.

7. Solana (SOL) ▲ ~$77.7 (+6.2% on the day)

Solana was the day's leader among the majors, up roughly 14-16% on the week. The rally was supported by tokenized stock trading activity and the launch of World, a new on-chain prediction market.

8. TRON (TRX) ◆ ~$0.317 (+0.6% on the day)

TRON stayed stable, underpinned by its dominant role in stablecoin transfers.

9. Hyperliquid (HYPE) ▼ ~$63 (-4.0% on the day)

HYPE was among the few decliners, retreating from its mid-June record ($76.85). HYPE funds nevertheless attracted roughly $161 million in net inflows in June - more than any other crypto ETF segment.

10. Dogecoin (DOGE) ▲ ~$0.074 (slightly higher)

DOGE recovered along with the broader market, trading around $0.074.

11. Cardano (ADA) ▲ ~$0.38 (slightly higher)

Cardano recovered to around $0.38, remaining close to multi-month lows.

12. Chainlink (LINK) ▲ ~$10.3 (slightly higher)

Chainlink recovered to around $10.3 alongside the broader improvement in risk appetite.

13. Stellar (XLM) ◆ ~$0.29 (nearly unchanged)

XLM traded around $0.29 with little change.

14. Avalanche (AVAX) ▲ ~$15.3 (slightly higher)

Avalanche recovered to around $15.3.

15. Toncoin (TON) ◆ ~$2.3 (nearly unchanged)

Toncoin rounded out the top 15, trading around $2.3.

Stablecoins

USDT and USDC held their pegs, but the segment's main story was regulation: from July 1, MiCA requirements for stablecoin issuers apply in full across the EU without exceptions. USDT, which lacks MiCA authorization, is being restricted or delisted on regulated EEA platforms, while compliant coins (USDC and others) strengthen their position in the European market. Tether's global market cap held around $188 billion, USDC around $74 billion.

NFT market

The NFT market remained quiet, with activity concentrated in blue-chip collections. CryptoPunks' 24-hour volume was roughly 470 ETH, with the collection's total market cap around $500 million. A broader recovery is still absent - the market is dominated by rotation among existing participants rather than new capital inflows.

ETF flows and institutional activity

June went down in history as the worst month ever for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows. Ethereum ETFs lost roughly $529 million in June, Solana ETFs roughly $0.8 million. XRP funds (+$59.4M) and HYPE funds (+$161M) moved in the opposite direction. Outflows continued on June 30 as well: the iShares Bitcoin Trust lost roughly $212 million, and the Fidelity fund roughly $10 million. Citigroup, responding to the drying-up flows, cut both its Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets and slashed its ETF inflow assumption to zero.

Security incidents

PeckShield's June tally showed roughly $75.9 million in losses across 40 incidents - about 7% less than in May ($81.7M). The largest incident was the Humanity Protocol hack (~~$31M), followed by Syscoin Bridge (~~$10M) and two Aztec incidents (together ~$4M). The second quarter overall set a negative record: 83 incidents with roughly $775 million in losses.

Regulatory news

July 1 was one of the most important dates in the history of European crypto regulation: the MiCA transitional period ended, and all 27 EU member states simultaneously moved to full enforcement of the regulation. From this day, every crypto-asset service provider in the EU must hold a CASP authorization or have an application submitted within the national deadline. National supervisors are empowered to impose fines, suspend operations and initiate wind-down procedures against unauthorized providers. In the Baltic states, where transitional periods ended earlier (in Latvia - June 2025), the changes were effectively already in place, but the unified regime now operates across the entire EU.

Macroeconomic context

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down, while reaffirming the 2% target and declining to give guidance on the next interest-rate decision (the Fed meets in four weeks). He also noted that AI investment could expand the productive capacity of the US economy. Risk appetite improved: gold rose, the S&P 500 was nearly flat on the day (around 7,483 points), and cryptocurrencies recovered from their morning lows. Still, the Coinbase Premium Index remained negative for the eighth consecutive week, pointing to persistently weak US demand.

Key numbers - July 1

Bitcoin: ~$60,300 (+3.1% on the day; intraday low ~$58,300 - a 21-month low)
Ethereum: ~$1,620 (+3.5%)
Total market capitalization: ~$2.17T (+2.0%)
Fear and greed index: ~11-15 (extreme fear)
Liquidations in 24h: ~$359M
US Bitcoin ETFs in June: ~-$4.5B (worst month on record)
XRP ETFs in June: +$59.4M; HYPE funds: +$161M
Citi's new targets: BTC $82,000, ETH $2,240
June hack losses: ~$75.9M (40 incidents)
MiCA: full enforcement in all 27 EU member states from July 1

This article was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

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