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Crypto 10.07.: BTC Tests 64k, ETF Flows Return

Daily analytical overview of the global crypto market for Friday, 10 July: prices, macro drivers, ETF flows, exchange events, and security. Bitcoin recovers towards $64,000 (+1.5%), total market capitalisation up 1.9% to ~$2.25 trillion, and spot BTC ETFs once again record net inflows (+$90 million).

Toms Ābeltiņš

11 July 20267 min read

On Friday, 10 July, the crypto market recovered amidst regulatory optimism (CLARITY Act) and stable stock markets. Bitcoin approached the $64,000 resistance level (opening at ~$63,185, high of $64,380; ~+1.5% daily), with Ethereum around $1,745-$1,750 (+0.1-1.0%). Total market capitalisation rose by 1.9% to ~$2.25 trillion, with BTC dominance at 56.3%. US spot BTC ETFs saw +$90 million, and ETH ETFs +$18 million - a turnaround after the $95.3 million outflow on 9 July. The S&P 500 was up 0.81%, NASDAQ up 1.30%, and the Fed rate remained at 3.50-3.75%. The Fear and Greed Index stayed at 23 points (extreme fear). In the industry: Polymarket submitted an FCM licence application in the US, Bybit was blocked from South Korea's Google Play. Security: CodexField (BNB Chain) is suspected of an ~$85 million rug pull.

Global Crypto Market on 10 July: Bitcoin Recovers Towards $64,000, ETF Flows Turn Positive Again

Friday, 10 July, marked a day of recovery for the crypto market. Bitcoin approached the $64,000 resistance level throughout the day, total market capitalisation increased by approximately 1.9%, and US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) once again recorded net inflows after the previous day's outflows. The rally was supported by growing optimism surrounding the US crypto regulation bill (the so-called CLARITY Act) and a stable stock market, though market sentiment remained cautious - the Fear and Greed Index stayed in the "extreme fear" zone (23 points). The day indicated a fragile but noticeable return of institutional demand following the heavy outflows in June.

Market Overview

On 10 July, Bitcoin opened at approximately $63,185 and reached a daily high of $64,380 (at 8:39 AM US Eastern Time), trading around $63,200-$63,360 with a daily increase of about 1.5%; some data sources even recorded +2.18% over 24 hours. On a weekly basis, the price was up 2.8%, and monthly up 2.5%, but the yearly outlook remains challenging - Bitcoin is approximately 43.2% below its historical peak of $126,198 on 6 October 2025. The nearest technical resistance remained in the $64,000 area, which the price tested multiple times but unconvincingly. (Sources: Yahoo Finance, KuCoin and CoinGabbar, 10 July)

Ethereum followed the market upwards more moderately: opening at $1,744, reaching a high of $1,795.90, and trading around $1,745-$1,750 with a daily increase ranging from +0.1% to +1.0%. Monthly, ETH's relative strength persisted - the coin showed a +6.5% gain, outperforming Bitcoin, while its weekly return was +2.7%. Year-on-year, ETH was approximately 37% below its August 2025 peak. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume was around $26.2 billion, and Ethereum's was $7.58 billion. (Sources: Yahoo Finance and CoinGabbar, 10 July)

The total crypto market capitalisation increased by approximately 1.9% over 24 hours to around $2.25 trillion, with total trading volume reaching about $60.3 billion. Bitcoin's dominance stood at 56.3%, and Ethereum's at 9.36%. The DeFi segment showed a more pronounced increase during the day - approximately +6.8%, with a total capitalisation of around $73 billion. Despite the price increase, the Fear and Greed Index remained in the "extreme fear" zone at 23 points (compared to 22 points the previous day), indicating that the recovery has not yet convinced market participants. (Source: CoinGabbar, 10 July)

What Influenced the Market

The main positive driver of the day was regulatory optimism. Hopes grew in the market that the US crypto market structure bill (the so-called CLARITY Act) could soon reach the Senate; the bill promises to more clearly define digital asset classification and compliance requirements. At the same time, analysts note that the chances of the bill passing this year are still approximately 50/50, so this is a reaction driven by anticipation, not confirmed fact. (Sources: InteractiveCrypto, 10 July; The Motley Fool, 6 July)

Traditional markets provided a supportive backdrop on 10 July. US stock indices closed higher - the S&P 500 at 7,543.55 points (+0.81%) and NASDAQ at 26,206.89 points (+1.30%), partly supported by positive news in the semiconductor sector. The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 215,000 - a relatively low level, indicating a resilient labour market. The US Federal Reserve's base rate was maintained in the 3.50-3.75% range; the minutes from the June meeting, published on 8 July, left the interest rate reduction schedule unclear, and the market continues to interpret it. (Source: KuCoin, 10 July)

Geopolitical uncertainty lingered in the background following the previous week's US-Iran tensions in the Middle East, but on 10 July, cryptocurrencies showed resilience against this risk. Regarding ETF flows, the picture improved: on 10 July, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $90 million in net inflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs added about $18 million, interpreted as a cautious return of institutional capital. This marked a turnaround after 9 July, when spot Bitcoin ETFs had experienced approximately $95.3 million in net outflows (with Fidelity's FBTC fund leading the outflow). A broader contextual reminder: June 2026, with approximately $4.5 billion in net outflows, was one of the weakest months in the history of spot Bitcoin funds, and on 6 July, MicroStrategy sold 3,588 BTC (approximately $80.8 million). (Sources: CryptoBriefing, 10 July; KuCoin and Bitcoinworld, 9 July; InteractiveCrypto, 10 July)

Exchange and Industry Events

The most significant exchange event on 10 July was prediction market platform Polymarket's move to re-enter the US market. The company's US subsidiary (Coming Home GBA) submitted an application for a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) licence - initially to the US National Futures Association (NFA), with final approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The licence would allow for the introduction of margin trading, where users can open positions without depositing the full transaction value. On 9 July, Polymarket launched a publicity campaign to rebuild trust with regulators; the company had paid a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC in 2022 and subsequently ceased serving US users. Competitor Kalshi received similar CFTC approval in March 2026. (Source: Bloomingbit, 10 July)

In Asia, regulatory pressure against foreign exchanges continued: the Bybit exchange app was blocked from South Korea's Google Play Store as South Korea intensified restrictions on foreign crypto exchanges on mobile app platforms. This aligns with South Korea's broader policy to limit unregistered foreign operators' access to local users. (Sources: Cryptonews and Bloomingbit, July 2026)

In Europe, the reorganisation triggered by MiCA regulation continues. Following Binance's withdrawal from the EU market in early July, industry comments included an estimate that approximately 70% of European users had moved assets to self-custody wallets; this is a media estimate, not an officially confirmed figure, and should be treated with caution. Separately, it was reported that Grayscale's Chief Financial Officer, Edward McGee, had resigned. These are structural, week-long processes that shape the current operational context for global exchanges. (Source: CoinGabbar, 10 July)

Security Incidents

The main security concern relevant to 10 July was the suspicion of a large-scale fraud within the BNB Chain project CodexField. On 9 July, on-chain analyst Specter (@SpecterAnalyst) published an investigation describing CodexField - a "hashrate staking" project with a product called CodexForge, which accepted USDT deposits in multiples of $100 with promises of mining-like returns - as a potential ~$85 million "rug pull" (exit scam). According to the analyst's data, approximately $17.3 million in USDT was moved from the TRON network to Ethereum and then exchanged for DAI on the Polygon network; about $6.5 million had already been moved, with another $10.8 million in process. After the investigation began, the project changed its X account name to @CodexField_AI and removed the subdomains used for collecting deposits, without publicly commenting on the movement of funds. It should be emphasised that these are accusations based on on-chain analysis, not a confirmed technical exploit; a final assessment is not yet available. (Source: The Crypto Times and Cryptopolitan, 9-10 July)

The broader context remains serious. According to PeckShield data, over $140 million has been lost so far in July 2026 due to cryptocurrency hacks and exploits, affecting platforms such as CoinDCX and GMX, among others; in the first half of the year, approximately $750 million was stolen from the crypto sector in total, with June alone accounting for about $76 million across 40 incidents. These figures underscore why DeFi and bridge security remain one of the industry's primary structural risks. (Sources: The Block and PeckShield, July 2026)

Context and Outlook

The recovery on 10 July should be viewed within a broader context. Following June, which, with over $4.5 billion in ETF outflows, was one of the weakest months in the history of spot Bitcoin funds, the positive inflow days at the start of July are the first signals of institutional capital returning. However, the Fear and Greed Index remaining in the "extreme fear" zone and subdued trading volumes indicate that confidence has not yet been restored. The market's short-term direction will likely depend on two factors: whether the CLARITY Act legislative process continues positively, and whether geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside or escalate.

The immediate catalysts are on the regulatory agenda: steps by US lawmakers in the areas of crypto market structure and stablecoins, as well as the continued implementation of MiCA in Europe, which will determine which exchanges remain in regulated EU markets. If Bitcoin can convincingly overcome the $64,000 resistance, the next focus will be on the $65,000 level; otherwise, the nearest support remains in the $60,000 area. Overall, 10 July marked an attempt at recovery, based on regulatory optimism and the return of ETF inflows, but without significant volume confirmation.

Key Figures - 10 July

Bitcoin: opening ~$63,185, high $64,380; ~+1.5% daily (some sources +2.18%); weekly +2.8%, monthly +2.5%, yearly -43.2%; resistance $64,000
Ethereum: opening $1,744, high $1,795.90; ~+0.1% to +1.0% daily; weekly +2.7%, monthly +6.5%
Total market capitalisation: ~$2.25 trillion (+1.9% daily); volume ~$60.3 billion
Dominance: BTC 56.3%, ETH 9.36%; DeFi segment +6.8% (~$73 billion)
Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index 23 ("extreme fear", compared to 22 previously)
ETFs: on 10 July, spot BTC ETF +$90 million, spot ETH ETF +$18 million; on 9 July, BTC ETF -$95.3 million (FBTC led the outflow)
Macro: S&P 500 7,543.55 (+0.81%); NASDAQ 26,206.89 (+1.30%); Fed rate 3.50-3.75%; jobless claims 215,000
Exchanges/Industry: Polymarket submits FCM licence application in US; Bybit app blocked from South Korea's Google Play; MiCA reorganisation continues
Security: CodexField (BNB Chain) suspected of ~$85 million "rug pull" ($17.3 million traced); >$140 million lost in industry in July

This article has been prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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